Prompt Cast
"Night Owls and Accurate Predictions: Inside Marist Poll Evolution"
Generated on March 23, 2026
TLDR Planet Money hosts discuss with Barbara Carvalho from Marist Poll how nighttime calling practices and unconsidered biases contribute to polling errors; they also test a novel social-circle questioning approach that hints at Republican trends in the House.
Timestamped Summary
00:00
During a NPR sponsorship of Planet Money's podcast segment on election polling at Marist College in New York.
03:31
Nick Fountain and Jeff Guo investigate why polls are frequently inaccurate by interviewing Barbara Carvalho from the Marist poll, who explains that night owl pollsters often call after work hours.
07:39
Nick Fountain and Jeff Guo explore why polls often fail by interviewing Barbara Carvalho about her career in Marist poll, focusing on avoiding biases to achieve accuracy.
11:16
The episode examines how Barbara Carvalho's career in Marist poll reveals the evolution and pitfalls of polling methods leading to Dewey defeating Truman.
15:01
Barbara Carvalho recalls a successful prediction in 2014 but foresaw polling changes, which proved right when future elections continually misfired.
19:03
Barbara Carvalho recalls a successful prediction in 2014 but foresaw polling changes, which proved right when future elections continually misfired.
22:53
Barbara recalls accurately forecasting past elections but anticipated polling challenges that emerged when future predictions failed repeatedly.
26:18
The Planet Money podcast tests a new method of polling by incorporating questions about social circles' voting preferences, revealing early Republican leanings in the House race.
